The confidence paradox and why we believe the bullshit artist
We talk a lot about misinformation and how people blindly follow the words of those who are clearly full of shit. There are so many factors at play, but there’s a paradox we’re facing that doesn’t seem to come up. To an extent, we’re all control freaks who hate uncertainty. To avoid falling for bullshit, lies, and manipulation, we need to actively work on these things. Currently, we’re dealing with a major issue where we’ve incentivized confidence way too much, and it’s why bullshit artists have the loudest voices.
So, what is the confidence paradox?
We simultaneously want people to be honest with us while also giving us answers that resolve our fear and uncertainty.
As we’ll discuss, these two things have a lot of trouble coexisting.
Gimme some of that confidence
I’d say the majority of us believe confidence is a valuable trait. Although I’m going to argue that humility is extremely important, I still value confidence in many contexts. When we look at who people idolize, those public individuals often exhibit some form of confidence. Whether it’s confidence in their ideas or just their confidence in the ability to speak publicly, it’s something that a lot of people wish they had.
Personally, I used to struggle with crippling social anxiety. It’s one of the reasons I started drinking and using drugs. So, when I got sober, I had to figure that out. But a lot of my social anxiety came from feelings of being less than others, and I admired people who had confidence. Today, I’m able to do public speaking in front of large groups and create content that sometimes reaches thousands of people. Although I’m still very much introverted, I have the confidence to do many more things than during those years of being filled with fear.
If I surveyed 1,000 people and asked them, “Do you want to be confident?”, I can’t imagine any of those people saying, “Nah. I’d rather not.”
We need confidence when we’re at a job interview or doing a presentation at work. We need confidence when we’re about to ask someone on a date. Confidence is also pretty helpful when we want to maintain our status by not getting punked by someone disrespecting us.
For the purpose of what we’re discussing today, we must acknowledge how important confidence is when we want people to listen to us. We all want to be heard, and it’s hard to achieve that if we lack confidence. So, in order to get people to listen, confidence is key.
I honestly can’t tell you how many times I’ve rewritten a sentence that says things like, “I think,” “I believe,” or anything else that doesn’t show confidence when I really want to make a point or pursuade.
And that leads us to the topic of humility.
There’s strength in humility
In my life, humility is one of the most important traits I look for in others and what I try to achieve personally. Why? Because it saved my life. What kept me in my drug addiction was my unwillingness to listen to anyone because I believed I knew everything. Nobody could tell me a damn thing because I was consistently the smartest person in the room. Due to an unwarranted ego, I came within inches of death.
What’s heartbreaking is that I’ve worked with thousands of addicts, and I’ve seen this lack of humility take a lot of lives. Working in a rehab for three years, there were over 80 clients (that I knew of) who died from overdoses or suicides. Some were tragically from hopelessness, but so many were from a lack of humility. They were the types who spent the duration of treatment not listening or participating because they didn’t think they needed to.
To maintain this great life I have today and to avoid relapse or a spiraling depression, I constantly remind myself to stay humble.
When I tell myself to be humble, I often hear Kendrick Lamar’s song in my head saying, “Bitch, be humble.” So, I get a little giggle in as I remember this important thing.
But when it comes to humility in others, it gets tricky because of confidence. I’d say there’s a decent amount of us who want a certain amount of humility in others. I don’t know about you, but when I see someone who thinks their infallible and amazing at everything, I think, “What a douchebag.”
If I’m ever on the fence about somebody, I ask a very simple question: Has this person every said they were wrong?
I’m not joking. One of the reasons I knew my girlfriend of almost six years was a keeper was her ability to say she was wrong. A relationship where one person never admits they’re wrong about anything is a nightmare. When two people refuse to admit when they’re wrong, it’s a disaster.
Fear and uncertainty makes us vulnerable
I cannot tell you how many books I’ve read on how to be a better thinker. Books that discuss biases, fallacies, heuristics, self-deception, denial and similar topics are my shit! I love them so much.
As humble as I try to be, I also hate being wrong and looking like a jackass. These books help me with that.
But, in the spirit of radical transparency, I initially started reading these books to understand why people think, say, and do such stupid things. I am fascinated by human behavior, and I’m always asking, “What the hell is going on in their head?”
I’ve probably read 100+ books on these topics along with consuming studies, articles, podcasts, and YouTube videos. The one thing they all seem to agree on is that the best way to avoid thinking, saying, or doing something really dumb is to have some humility.
And that’s where the confidence paradox comes in.
I think the best way to explain this is what I recognized throughout the COVID pandemic, especially while Trump was in office.
On one side, you had some of the smartest, best people in the world working on this thing. For anyone who understands science, it’s regularly changing as we gather new information. During the early days of the pandemic, what we knew about the virus was constantly changing.
I remember watching interviews with experts from the CDC, WHO and others, and they’d express that fantastic trait of humility. In response to certain questions, they’d reply with, “We can’t say for certain at this time,” “We’re looking into it, but we’re not sure right now,” or “It’s too early to know.”
Then, there was Trump…
This moron was doing regular briefings and saying the most ridiculous things that were not only dumb, but he was saying things that nobody could possibly know for sure.
To millions of Americans and the rest of the world, he’d tell us that that pandemic was under control and would be gone within weeks. He’d tell us that we don’t need masks or social distancing. Remember that time he talked about using bleach and lights to cure COVID?
Like, holy shit, right? But it worked and millions believed him…
This is when I first realized this paradoxical situation that we’re in and why science has a really tough battle in front of it. During times like the pandemic, people are losing their fucking minds and want answers. People were filled with fear and wanted someone to give them some certainty.
We were all worried about our families, our kids, ourselves, our jobs, our ability to put food on the table, and more. We didn’t know what was happening, how long it would last, or if we’d be alright. So, with so much uncertainty, people wanted someone that could soothe their fearful minds.
It’s not limited to Trump, either. Just take a look around.
Another story that sticks out in mind is Joe Rogan broadcasting to millions of listeners about how he has a folder on his phone labeled “coodies” filled with COVID information. He bragged about how he shows it to his wife’s friends who are following the science. Then, this man who is a comedian, UFC announcer, and podcast host has the audacity to say that he shows what’s in this “coodies” folder to doctors, scientists, and experts to prove them wrong.
With 100% confidence and 0% humility, people think Joe Rogan knows what the hell he’s talking about. Then, he brings on quacks like Dr. Malone and Dr. McCullough who are just as confident in the bullshit their selling.
Now, look at the most notorious gurus out there and the amount of confidence they have in what they say. Bret Weinstein still things he’s a genius who knows the truth about COVID and literally thinks his work is underappreciated and deserves a Nobel prize. Then, you have people like Jordan Peterson, and so many other people who are consistently wrong but believe they’re experts in all things.
What’s scary is when you combine a population filled with fear, uncertainty, and anger with overconfident assholes with a God complex, it makes for a bad situation.
Uncertain person: “Why can’t I get a job?”
Confident bullshit artist: “Immigrants and affirmative action!”
Uncertain person: “Will my child be ok?”
Confident bullshit artist: “Only if we stop teaching them about racism and that some people are attracted to the same sex!”
Uncertain person: “Why can’t I afford to pay rent or feed my family?”
Confident bullshit artist: “Because you aren’t working hard enough!”
Uncertain person: “Why are there so many shootings?”
Confident bullshit artist: “Because we don’t have enough guns!”
I could go on forever with the examples. I regularly think about how these people can make statements with absolutely no data or science to back their bullshit, but people blindly believe them. As long as you say it with confidence, you increase your chances of selling your nonsense.
Battling our gullibility
After writing my piece about why it isn’t advantageous to seek the truth, I was introduced to Shane Littrell PhD because he had some criticisms. Since I’ve taught myself to embrace criticism and fill in my gaps in knowledge, I asked him to provide some more details. While we had some disagreements on the validity of evolutionary psychology, he introduced me to a bunch of great studies that I’m still working through.
One of them was Gotcha! Behavioural validation of the Gullibility Scale, and I loved it. I can’t wait to learn more. This part of the introduction to the study sums it up pretty well:
Other individual differences such as the need for cognition and the need for closure, may also be related to gullibility. The need for cognition refers to an individual's tendency to enjoy and regularly take part in effortful cognitive activity (Cacioppo & Petty, 1982). An individual with a higher need for cognition will actively seek out and carefully examine information, while an individual with a lower need for cognition will tend to use other strategies to make sense of their environment, such as heuristics (Lins de Holanda Coelho, Hanel, & Wolf, 2018). Thus, high gullibility is expected to be associated with low need for cognition. Similarly, individuals with a high need for closure exhibit cognitive impulsivity and impatience, and will often rush to a conclusion in an effort to seek out certainty, whereas individuals with a lower need for closure appear to enjoy ambiguity and resist committing to a definitive answer (Kruglanski & Webster, 1996). Accordingly, insensitivity to cues of untrustworthiness (gullibility) may be related to a high need for closure, as there is a stronger reliance on cognitive shortcuts.
What they did for the study was pretty interesting. They got 219 undergrad psych students to participate and rated them on the gullibility scale to see how accurate it was for predicting behavior. To do this, they sent some phishing emails. By the end, they pretty much concluded that the above traits are pretty accurate in predicting gullibility.
So, as I regularly say here, I was taught that it’s a lot easier to change myself than it is to change the rest of the world. And for my sanity, I have to know what is and isn’t in my control.
Years ago, when I got sober, I was diagnosed with an anxiety disorder. It was out of control, and a lot of it came from uncertainty. Now, through years of working on myself by going to therapy, practicing meditation, going to 12-step meetings, and more, my anxiety about uncertainty is under control about 98% of the time.
I no longer need immediate answers, and I embrace the uncertainty. I’ve turned that uncertainty into motivation to learn. It’s why I read so damned much. Something I hope to write about in the future is how much reading and learning has helped my mental health. I’ve learned more about how things actually work as well as a better understanding of probabilities. Hell, learning how to make better decisions and who to trust has solved half of my problems because I can weed out the bullshit a lot better.
Although I have absolutely no control over you or anyone else, that’s why I write. I can put this out into the world, and maybe it gets someone to say, “Hmmm. I hadn’t thought of that, but I definitely don’t want to fall for bullshit. Maybe I’ll try some of this.” Or maybe you’ll be better at recognizing with your uncertainty anxiety flares up and makes you vulnerable to bullshit.
All I know is that things are pretty fucking bad. We’re in an era where misinformation and bad ideas spread like wildfire. It’s 2022 and people still buy snake oil and listen to overconfident people who have no clue what they’re talking about. So, what’s it hurt by giving this a try and hopefully getting through to someone?
We’ve incentivized confidence, so the gurus and grifters aren’t going anywhere for now. But, if we start incentivizing humility, maybe we can start to change course.
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